As much as
a person can assess their own political bias, I will attempt to do so here. I do not
hunt. It is not because I find the practice abhorrent or offensive and I
certainly have nothing against eating delicious animals. It is simply a pastime
I have no interest in (like water polo or Celine Dion concerts). I grew up with
guns in the house, both of my parents have carry permits and I got my mom a
gift certificate to the shooting range for a mother’s day gift. I even enjoy
shooting a handgun when I get the chance. That being said, I do not currently
own a gun and probably will not in the foreseeable future.
From a political perspective I would call myself a moderate
(which for some reason has become dreadfully unfashionable as of late). I
greatly admire George H. W. Bush and believe him to be the best president of my
lifetime, but have voted for both Republicans and Democrats in Federal
elections. I often find myself aligned with the fiscal policy of Republicans
and the social policy of Democrats but not always.
There has been much debate about guns, shootings, and safety and I find it very difficult to find objective data on which to base my own opinion. I have tried to do so here. I mainly focused on two ideas that always seem to get people riled up.
Idea 1 –
Higher rates of gun ownership deter and reduce crime overall – On the surface,
there is certainly empirical evidence to back this up. Most notably, the gun
homicide rate is down 49% since its 1993 peak, while gun manufactures have enjoyed
unprecedented levels of gun sales over the past decade. This is certainly
enough to explore a correlation so I found a 2013 PEW research study that
looked at the issue more closely.
At its 1993 height, the United States averaged 7.0 homicide
deaths per 100,000 people. That dropped dramatically until it was only 3.8 per
100,000 in 2000. Since then it has fluctuated some (it is currently at 3.6) but
has not seen any more dramatic shifts over the past decade despite
unprecedented levels of gun sales. The United States currently has more guns
than citizens and we lead the world in per-capita civilian ownership of
firearms (Serbia and Yemen register a distant second and third).The same study
also showed that while record numbers of firearms have been purchased under the
Obama administration, the percentage of households that own guns has been
declining since its 1973 peak of 49% (it is around 43% now).
What that tells is that the record sales under Obama indicate
the boom is largely the result of existing gun owners purchasing more firearms
rather than people purchasing their first firearm. To put it another way, the
biggest number of civilian firearms in American history are controlled by a
minority of the populace. While that is not inherently good or bad, it makes a
connection between increased gun sales and decreased gun homicides rather
dubious. To quote the PEW research study:
Compared with other developed nations, the U.S. has a higher homicide
rate and higher rates of gun ownership, but not higher rates for all other
crimes.
The truth is that gun sales are up and gun homicides are down
but there does not seem to be a direct correlation. There is still no consensus
among researchers as to why the gun homicide rate was so high in the early 90’s
or why it dropped so dramatically after 1993, but every ideology is more than
willing to take credit. Gun advocates will tell you it is because gun ownership
is an effective deterrent and gun control pundits will point to socio-economic
factors and the implementation of the Brady bill. There is no real consensus as
to why people were less prone to shooting one another in 1994, but if my
experience was any indication it was because they were all too busy playing
Super Metroid.
Idea 2 - Higher
rates of gun ownership deter or reduce mass shootings specifically - As of yet,
I have been unable to find any evidence to back this up. There has also been
much parsing of the idea that we average a mass shooting every day. Gun
advocates would tell you that the results are misleading because they do not utilize
the FBI’s definition (who only count the incident if 3 or more victims die. This means that if the gunman is a
sub-par marksman and shoots 40 people at a mall but only 2 die from their
wounds the incident wouldn’t make the cut.)
To be fair, many gun control advocates are misleading when it
comes to the mass shooting frequency as well. Obama was wrong when he indicated
that this sort of thing did not occur in any other industrialized nations. It
does. Furthermore, the best per capital statistics I could find that included
other industrialized nations found the United States did NOT lead the world in
rampage shooting deaths or injuries per capita (that distinction belongs to
Norway.)
That being said, the United States averages 10 times more per
capita gun deaths (both homicide and suicide) than Great Brittan and Australia
(countries decried by the NRA for their “draconian” gun restrictions.) In fact,
we rank just under Mexico by most metrics.
Playing devil’s advocate, it would make perfect sense that a
county with less guns would see less gun deaths, but would that effect the
overall murder rate? For that, we would look at the per capita intentional
homicide rate. The US still averages over 4 times the murder rate of Great
Brittan and Australia regardless of how the homicide was committed. Going one
step further, there are several memes that simply cite “violent crime” rates
and claim that the United Kingdom (while it may have less murders) has more
violent crimes per capita than the US.
On the surface that is true, but only because Great Brittan
considers any “crime against a person” as a violent crime while in the US we
only count murder and non-negligent homicide, forcible rape, robbery and
aggravated assault. For instance; harassment, statutory rape, or even
possessing a knife are considered violent crimes in Great Brittan so there is
no real way to compare apples to apples since we categorize that data so
differently.
If we stick with the comparisons of Great Brittan and
Australia, the study showed that between the years of 2000-2014, Great Brittan
had 1 mass shooting with 23 total victims (killed and injured) and Australia
had 2 mass shootings with 9 total victims. During that same period, the United
States had 133 mass shootings with 992 total victims.
The other problem with the mass-shootings-every day crowd is
that they rely on aggregate news reports and not centralized research sources.
This wouldn’t be such a disingenuous critique by gun advocates if the NRA hadn’t
spent so much effort preventing reliable statistics from existing.
In 1995, the CDC spent $2.6 Million on gun research. The NRA
accused the CDC of advocating for gun control and in 1996 the $2.6 Million was
removed from the CDC’s funding by a Republican congressman. It was only
restored after the following provision was added to the CDC appropriations
bill:
None of the funds made available for injury prevention and control at the
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention may be used to advocate or promote
gun control.
While the provision did not technically outlaw research, it
created a model that predicated funding on how the resulting data would be
used. The CDC got the message and there were practically no studies done on
firearms, gun deaths, or injury preventions until 2013 when President Obama
ordered them to resume it. They have yet to do so for fear of Congressional
retribution. The National Institute of Justice (an arm of the Department of
Justice) averaged over 5 gun studies a year in the early 90’s but from 2009 to
2013 conducted none.
Almost every year, groups of scientists and doctors signed
letters calling on the CDC to resume research on effective ways to reduce gun
violence. One of the signees, a criminology professor at the University of Pennsylvania,
stated that he could “see no upside to ignorance.” The NRA contends that the
Center for Disease Control should not handle firearms statistics lest gun
ownership be equated to a “disease.” Let’s just say that the same CDC department
studies motor vehicle safety and the NRA has not yet expressed concern that the
Federal government will ban or confiscate anyone’s Ford Focus.
Gun control advocates are wrong when they indicate that gun
deaths are skyrocketing or that no other industrialized nation experiences mass
shootings. Guns do not make people violent, but they are the weapon of choice
for violent people. They can also be used by law-abiding citizens for sport or
protection.
We also have a second amendment that, like all of The
Constitution is open to interpretation.
A well regulated Militia, being
necessary to the security of a free State, the right of the people to keep and
bear Arms, shall not be infringed.
Some interpret this as being two mutually exclusive ideas: A
well regulated Militia is necessary for the security of a free state. In
addition to militia-members, the right of [anyone] to keep and bear arms [for
any reason they wish] shall not be infringed.
Others would see the first half of a sentence as a qualifier
for the second. Since a well-regulated militia is necessary to the security of
a free state [the right of militia members specifically to keep and bear
firearms] shall not be infringed.
Bottom
Line: Residents of Great Brittan and Australia are far less likely
to be murdered in general and murdered by guns specifically. This solidly
refutes the idea that more guns among citizens = less homicide. However,
removing guns from a population does not remove anger, hatred, or violence. It
simply limits the expression of those emotions to less advanced weaponry.
Regardless
of how you feel about gun rights, we need standardized nationwide data on gun
safety and gun deaths before we make any decisions on regulation. If the NRA
truly believes that a wide interpretation of the Second Amendment keeps
law-abiding citizens safer, then they should have no reason to fear the data
such studies would produce or spend millions lobbying against the CDC’s ability
to compile it.